Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.317752 0.372450 0.431975 0.501339 0.579714 0.665288 0.765545
2025-04-20 0.233186 0.301716 0.382304 0.483238 0.605382 0.747487 0.924320
2025-04-27 0.169941 0.242884 0.335493 0.459805 0.620191 0.817882 1.077422
2025-05-04 0.127557 0.201798 0.303581 0.449746 0.650134 0.910696 1.269793
2025-05-11 0.095055 0.167297 0.274487 0.439167 0.678706 1.006446 1.479076
2025-05-18 0.065629 0.130216 0.234761 0.407384 0.674422 1.059200 1.639758
2025-05-25 0.043738 0.099055 0.197391 0.372445 0.660701 1.097934 1.787322
2025-06-01 0.031071 0.080314 0.176214 0.359480 0.679076 1.186723 2.018836
2025-06-08 0.021685 0.064620 0.156613 0.345523 0.694174 1.273261 2.258248
2025-06-15 0.016484 0.056161 0.148942 0.352039 0.745763 1.425038 2.616847
2025-06-22 0.010805 0.043601 0.128960 0.330538 0.744215 1.489431 2.843213
2025-06-29 0.007254 0.034847 0.114735 0.317664 0.756948 1.580365 3.124114
2025-07-06 0.004637 0.027284 0.101127 0.304059 0.768724 1.676188 3.433000
2025-07-13 0.003232 0.023020 0.094855 0.306324 0.814284 1.840991 3.882134
2025-07-20 0.002119 0.018786 0.086842 0.302341 0.846312 1.985024 4.310225
2025-07-27 0.001444 0.015913 0.081970 0.305650 0.896048 2.170911 4.835853
2025-08-03 0.000952 0.013327 0.076815 0.306924 0.941806 2.355008 5.376954
2025-08-10 0.000519 0.010063 0.066861 0.290686 0.942022 2.444916 5.745202
2025-08-17 0.000253 0.007285 0.056759 0.270243 0.927450 2.501571 6.053810
2025-08-24 0.000138 0.005786 0.051692 0.265287 0.953550 2.651918 6.567943
2025-08-31 0.000070 0.004515 0.046658 0.258615 0.973815 2.791793 7.073551
2025-09-07 0.000043 0.003955 0.045608 0.267401 1.041016 3.049380 7.850862
2025-09-14 0.000017 0.002885 0.039631 0.253306 1.036939 3.136425 8.268310